Old and new world patterns and order

The whole world is like a movie with major scenes of chaos and disorder, one after another, as one ends, another has already started. The noise and confusion blur the lines between reality and drama. Life is not so much a play, instead the whole world is a play.

Due to the changes brought about by various factors and forces, the world’s pattern is losing its original balance, and the structure that maintained the original order is loosening, perhaps step by step towards disintegration and reconstruction, or perhaps it will make a breakthrough through a major shake-up. In short, the year 2020 told us that anything is possible. Governments will have to deal with huge challenges on many fronts at home, but at the same time they will have to find their own niche in the formation of the new world system, complete their deployment and pave the way for the next 20 to 30 years.

One of the main signs of the disintegration of the current world landscape is that the US dollar will not be able to sustain its usual monetary strategy of having explicit and implicit financial control over the rest of the world. As more and more of the world’s major economies issue their own digital currencies and use barter to trade internationally, or trade oil without using the dollar, the dollar will lose its monopoly on the global financial and trading system. This means that the economic source to satisfy the huge expenses of maintaining world hegemony no longer exists. With new sources of energy and technology emerging, oil is likely to lose its black gold status and value in the future, and with it the influence of the dollar as a hegemonic currency. The war-torn Middle East of the past few decades will lose the advantage of its great natural wealth in exchange for a more peaceful homeland.

Some new local organizations and alliances will be established one after another, and with the passage of time and the ongoing development, some long-standing international alliances will be replaced. Who these new alliance partners and solutions at all levels will be are not so easy for anyone to determine, because the factors influencing them are so diverse, the world is in rapid change and there is random uncertainty.

How to find unity and the best positioning among the five factors of values, interests, security, balance and geopolitics, and how to deal with the variables, is the international challenge facing every government.

However, no matter what the outcome or the future may be, a multilateral and balanced international system is more conducive to world stability and peace than the unilateral hegemony model. Therefore, after the United States loses its hegemony and the world restructures, there may be a new balance at a global level.

-An extract of the book PASSPORT TO THE FUTURE