5 signs before the birth of a new era
Big changes and events happen all the time in the world, but when many major changes happen in multiple areas, all at the same time, it is a time of transgressive significance for human society. The year 2020 sent a clear signal to the world that the future is full of changes and that nothing will be the same. For better or for worse, for the benefit of humanity or not, proactively or reactively, a new era has begun, and the meaning behind it will be revealed gradually over time…
In the current transitional period between the old and the new, the following 5 areas are changing rapidly and strongly, and direct-ly affecting people’s lives.
Sign 1: The 4th Industrial Revolution
The world’s technological powerhouses such as the US, China, the EU and Israel are concentrating their efforts on vigorously developing the application of various key technologies that have been described as the fourth industrial revolution of recent human history. These include artificial intelli-gence, 3D printing, big data, blockchain, Internet of Things, virtual reality, augmented reality, genetic engineering, quantum computing, quantum communications, etc., and already great progress has been achieved.
The application of these technologies will influence and change every aspect of human life and work. From the way we work, our efficiency and business models, to the structure of society, the habits of mass consumption and how we live, and even the quality of life, our potential and our emotional aspirations will all be affected by them.
Technology is a neutral tool that can be used for good or for ill. The more powerful a new technology is, the more human beings need to be able to manage it; the wider its impact, the more it leads to a series of deep social and ethical analyses at multiple levels.
The rapid development and widespread use of these techno-logies make the future even more unknown, as government rules and regulations interact with, and adapt them to, the various needs and desires of humanity. They may reject, integrate, suppress or promote them until they become part of a new societal system that is initially stable and mature.
Sign 2: Increased Frequency and Intensity of Global Natural Disasters
Many data and phenomena indicate that the Earth’s ecosystems have been seriously damaged and are out of balance.
Humanity’s excessive and predatory demand for and use of the earth’s resources, its cruel and inhumane use of animals, its short-sighted and foolish policies and behaviors in the cause of economic development … These have accumulated to a point where disasters of all kinds break out frequently and humans are having to pay back much more. What appears to be a natural disaster is actually the result of man’s own actions, as the laws of natural balance have been violated. It is likely that the coronavirus was also generated and spread “by chance” as a result of an imbalance in the Earth’s ecosystem.
There are many horrific disasters happening on this planet, more serious and tragic than the coronavirus, but these have not been recognized and taken seriously on a global scale because they have not yet touched everyone’s lives in a concrete way. But if these do not receive the attention and measures they deserve, the consequen-ces could be unimaginable.
The destruction of the Antarctic and Arctic ecosystems due to rising temperatures and overfishing has resulted in the mass migration, reduced reproduction rates and the death of the fish and prawns on which penguins and polar bears depend for food. Large numbers of penguins are dying of starvation. The widespread melting of ice has deprived polar bears, seals and other animals of their hunting and breeding grounds. I once saw a heartbreaking video of a hungry father polar bear trying to eat his cub to feed himself. The mother fought unsuccessfully to protect him, and he was eventually torn apart by his father for food.
As the ice melts, a variety of ancient viruses that have been hidden beneath the surface will be exposed. Like the coronavirus, these viruses, which have been dormant for many years, could become active, spread and mutate at any time as environmental and temperature conditions permit again. Just one coronavirus has already given human society a taste of the potential impact.
The drier climate has also led to a proliferation of locusts, and this year African countries and the Pakistani region of South East Asia have experienced the worst locust plague in decades, with severe food losses. The harsh climate has also had a major negative impact on food production. In order to avoid food disasters, if these adverse weather conditions persist, countries should strategically stockpile food and focus on sustainable food supplies.
The dry climate, rising temperatures and deforestation caused by man also led to the Amazon rainforest fires in Brazil from January to October 2019 and the huge forest fires in Australia from September 2019 to May 2020. The length of time they lasted, the amount of damage, the number of animals killed and injured, and the amount of pollution they caused … were the worst in history and the scenes were heartbreaking.
In just the one year in 2020, there were epidemics, locust plagues, earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, snowstorms, volcanic eruptions, a major Arctic methane outbreak, stones falling from sky in Italy, bats biting people in Australia, thawing of the permafrost, Himalayan summits so warm that grass was growing, blood red snow in the Antarctic, and massive coral reef die-offs … If we are not all appalled and alarmed by these events then humans are definitely the worst species when it comes to learning lessons from our mistakes.
Unfortunately, the true state of affairs at the moment is that environmental awareness varies greatly between different countries and regions of the world, but there is only one earth and it is inhabited by all. We cannot completely compartmentalize and isolate air and water sources, etc.; they will always have an impact on each other. How to manage and use the planet’s resources intelligently and in harmony with other beings at a global level is one of the most important challenges.
For if nature were to go haywire, be it from earthquakes, tsuna-mis or viruses or radiation, us tiny human beings would be massively vulnerable.
Sign 3: The Coronavirus Pandemic
It all came so suddenly, it happened so serendipitously and proceeded so violently. This is probably the impression that most people around the world have of the global corona-virus pandemic.
The timing of the coronavirus is somewhat intriguing. Humanity is fast developing the leading-edge technology of the fourth industrial revolution, believing that digitization can lead to better living, health upgrades and economic leaps and bounds. Musk was building spaceship, giants were investing in technology to make us immortal… It sounded like the plot of a science fiction novel where humanity was doing so well and getting close to heaven. But suddenly, this coronavirus pops up, messes up the script, and turns our super hero movie into a dark satire.
This tiny, previously unknown virus has three main characteristics: it spreads quickly, it mutates in a short period of time and humans do not seem to develop long-term antibodies to it after being infected. In just a few months, it has stopped the world from function-ing properly, causing enormous damage to the global economy and the health of mankind. Its unpredictability and randomness have left humans somewhat helpless; the uncertainty of whether it is possible to have permanent antibody production in the body after being infected has made it impossible to permanently say goodbye to reinfection.
The occurrence coronavirus has led to a rapid and vigorous advance in the use of digitalization in a number of areas. If the virus continues for years to come, humans will have to make use of digitalization to virtually compensate for the forced abandonment of activities, socialization, interaction, entertainment, and so many other things. In some ways, the virtual approach will take over a signifi-cant part of people’s lives and be fresh and interesting, but it is also a departure from the natural way in which we exist and goes against the essence of our interconnection with all things natural in the world.
It is highly unlikely that humans will be able to defeat this virus in the short term, and the only hope for now are vaccines. But how long will the vaccines last in humans, and how the coronavirus will mutate in the interim, are still unknown. In any case, its emergence and especially its difference to other known viruses, sends the message that it too lives on this planet and, although insignificant, has the capability of overthrowing and challenging the existing physiological and social systems of mankind. By taking heed of this experience, mankind should realize the need to live in harmony with nature and to follow the path of nature, rather than to claim to be the supreme master of the earth. There is nothing more foolish and lacking in reverence than the idea that man is destined to prevail.
Sign 4: The world economy enters a recession
The worldwide coronavirus pandemic that broke out in 2020 has begun a period of recession in the world economy. But in fact, the world economy had already entered a period of weakness, and the sudden onset of the coronavirus brought to the fore many of the existing problems and accelerated the recessionary process.
Before the outbreak of coronavirus, the world’s major economies were facing the challenge of finding new sources of economic growth. The United States, which had been the world’s dominant economy for decades, was still ostensibly in the leading position, but in fact it was heavily indebted, and its intricate financial system, which was not backed by the real economy, was like a narrow tower rising high into the air that was at risk of collapse. The real cause of these economic crises has been the demise of the American spirit. Successive presidents, since the founding of the United States, created an American dream based on the values of freedom, equality and democracy. However, when this country that had led the world for so long, itself lost sight of the right, strong values that had always guided it, then its attitude and behavior towards issues such as power, self-interest and global mission also deviated from the original track. Whether the US can rebuild the American spirit is not something that any one president can achieve alone; it is a complex system. The first questions are whether the US is willing to apply this spirit in international affairs, and whether the US will continue to lead the world on the stage of history.
China is facing a restructuring and upgrading of its economy after 20 years of rapid development. The model that once relied on cheap labor to become the world’s factory, which accumulated a great deal of wealth and experience for China, has now become history. The challenge for China today is to build more of its own high quality, high technology and innovative brands, to move from quantity to quality, from shallow to deep, and to tap into value growth. New local brands have emerged in the domestic market, eating into and dividing up the original market of international brands in China. And there is still a lot of potential for product and service upgrades in the domestic market. Especially in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, which has significantly reduced international orders, domestic demand is a powerful counterweight. It will take some time as well as accurate and targeted branding strategies to establish a premium brand that is recognized by the international market. China may be able to launch technologically advanced products in certain areas of technology, but brand building is a long-term integrated system, China’s lack of experience in this area in recent times may be a bottleneck to growth. Europe has much more experience in building long-established international brands on which to draw.
Over the past decade or so, the trends towards increased globalization and faster changes in the world have not prompted Europe to increase its economic and policy flexibility to a commensurate degree. There is much to hold on to in a Europe steeped in culture and history, but there are also adjustments that need to be made to keep up with the times. For example, in the last 10 years Europe has lagged behind China and the US in terms of the Internet and digitalization. On the whole, Europe’s economy needs to be reinvigorated, and how it finds the right balance between history and the future, between tradition and modernity, between home and the world, and how it combines innovation will largely determine the future face of Europe. The analysis of this issue also leads us to a definition of potential and opportunity, and if Europe is able to move forward with a series of reforms that are in line with the EU context, then in ten years’ time we will see a new Europe, but a new Europe that is still European in flavor.
With the development of the 4th technological revolution, all major economies have set their sights and hopes on digitalization, hoping to create new economic growth and create new industrial chains through the development and application of technology. The untimely arrival of the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the digitalization process on some levels, such as the shift of a large number of business, educational and lifestyle behaviors from offline to online. But it has also led to some rethinking about the scope of digital technology applications, which will be analyzed in a separate section later.
The uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus and the inability of the human body to develop long-term antibodies means that economic impact is unlikely to disappear before 2022 … perhaps until the day the virus disappears on its own. As long as the virus cannot be eliminated, and long-term immunization is not possible, even if the tougher control measures lead to a respite, at the rate it is spreading it could return at any time on a large scale, so there will clearly be a constant battle against it. The longer it goes on, the more the industries and sectors directly affected will have to fight to survive, adjusting and trying to improve all the time in order to just delay that fateful day. Although large enterprises are more powerful, their costs are high and the only way to survive at this time is to lay off a large number of staff and reduce the numbers of shops and branches. Small and medium-sized enterprises are less able to withstand long-term economic shocks, and if governments stop providing long-term support, there will be a wave of bankruptcies.
Although the world economy, as a whole, is in recession in the short term, there are always opportunities that come with these times, which require insight and strategic planning above everything. While the mainstream is gloomily complaining as the outside world ebbs and flows around them, some are already reaping the new opportunities behind the crisis!
Sign 5: Old and new world patterns and order
he whole world is like a movie with major scenes of chaos and disorder, one after another, as one ends, another has already started. The noise and confusion blur the lines between reality and drama. Life is not so much a play, instead the whole world is a play.
Due to the changes brought about by various factors and forces, the world’s pattern is losing its original balance, and the structure that maintained the original order is loosening, perhaps step by step towards disintegration and reconstruction, or perhaps it will make a breakthrough through a major shake-up. In short, the year 2020 told us that anything is possible. Governments will have to deal with huge challenges on many fronts at home, but at the same time they will have to find their own niche in the formation of the new world system, complete their deployment and pave the way for the next 20 to 30 years.
One of the main signs of the disintegration of the current world landscape is that the US dollar will not be able to sustain its usual monetary strategy of having explicit and implicit financial control over the rest of the world. As more and more of the world’s major economies issue their own digital currencies and use barter to trade internationally, or trade oil without using the dollar, the dollar will lose its monopoly on the global financial and trading system. This means that the economic source to satisfy the huge expenses of maintaining world hegemony no longer exists. With new sources of energy and technology emerging, oil is likely to lose its black gold status and value in the future, and with it the influence of the dollar as a hegemonic currency. The war-torn Middle East of the past few decades will lose the advantage of its great natural wealth in exchange for a more peaceful homeland.
Some new local organizations and alliances will be established one after another, and with the passage of time and the ongoing development, some long-standing international alliances will be replaced. Who these new alliance partners and solutions at all levels will be are not so easy for anyone to determine, because the factors influencing them are so diverse, the world is in rapid change and there is random uncertainty.
How to find unity and the best positioning among the five factors of values, interests, security, balance and geopolitics, and how to deal with the variables, is the international challenge facing every government.
However, no matter what the outcome or the future may be, a multilateral and balanced international system is more conducive to world stability and peace than the unilateral hegemony model. Therefore, after the United States loses its hegemony and the world restructures, there may be a new balance at a global level.
-Dr. Maggie Qi
Futures Studies of QG Future Excellence
